NASA: In a Warming World. Storms May Be Fewer but Stronger - Scientists Investigate How Climate Change Affects Extreme Weather - 5.3.13
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In a Warming World, Storms May Be Fewer but Stronger
Scientists Investigate How Climate Change Affects Extreme Weather
March 5, 2013
Few images are as beautiful and as terrifying as a satellite view
of a hurricane about to make landfall. On October 29, 2012, the Suomi
NPP satellite captured an ominous nighttime view of Sandy—an enormous
hybrid storm that was part hurricane, part Nor‘easter—churning off the
coast of New Jersey.
Hurricane Sandy approaches the Atlantic coast of the U.S. in the
early morning hours of October 29, 2012. (NASA Earth Observatory image
by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using VIIRS Day-Night Band data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership.)
The string of city lights that stretches from Washington to Boston
was mostly gone, blanketed by thick, ghostly storm clouds. One of the
most brightly lit cities in the world, New York, was little more than a
faint smudge through Sandy’s clouds.
In a matter of hours, that smudge of light would go dark. Large swaths of Manhattan were under water. The Rockaways were on fire. Rooftops along the New Jersey shore became temporary islands for people escaping a wall of seawater that surged inland.
In a matter of hours, that smudge of light would go dark. Large swaths of Manhattan were under water. The Rockaways were on fire. Rooftops along the New Jersey shore became temporary islands for people escaping a wall of seawater that surged inland.
Hurricane Sandy knocked out power to much of lower Manhattan, New York. (Photograph ©2012 Several seconds.)
Was Superstorm Sandy an expression of a “new normal” for our weather? Was it a storm pumped up by global warming?
“If you look at the unique set of circumstances in which Sandy emerged and you know something about meteorology and climate,” says Marshall Shepherd, director of the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia, “it’s hard not to ask yourself these kinds of questions.”
“If you look at the unique set of circumstances in which Sandy emerged and you know something about meteorology and climate,” says Marshall Shepherd, director of the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia, “it’s hard not to ask yourself these kinds of questions.”
Research meteorologist Marshall Shepherd compares climate change
and weather extremes to steroids and baseball. “Some influence was
surely there, but we have more work to do before we can say precisely
what percentage.” (Photograph courtesy Marshall Shepherd, University of
Georgia Atmospheric Sciences Program.)
Sandy is not the only recent storm to make people ask questions
about climate change and weather. In 2010, an epic winter storm dubbed “Snowmageddon”
dumped more than half a meter (2 feet) of snow across many parts of the
U.S. East Coast. And in April 2011, tornadoes killed more than 364
Americans—the most ever in a month. The rash of twisters etched scars of destruction
on the landscape so long and wide that they could be seen from space.
The United States set records in 2011 and 2012 for the number of weather
disasters that exceeded $1 billion in losses; most were storms.
Hackleburg High School in Alabama was destroyed by a tornado in April 2011. (Photograph courtesy Federal Emergency Management Agency.)
All of these weather events have happened as the concentration of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been rising higher than it has
been for at least 100,000 years. Scientists are nearly certain that the
buildup of carbon dioxide has already sparked changes in Earth’s
atmosphere and ecosystems. The lowest layer of the atmosphere (the
troposphere) has warmed markedly, especially at high latitudes. So have
the world’s oceans. Heat waves and droughts have grown more likely and
more extreme. Arctic ice is melting at a record pace, and the snowy landscapes of the far north have started melting earlier each year.
Given all the change that has already take place, it’s reasonable to wonder if climate change has affected storms as well. “After the tornadoes in 2011, I was flooded with calls from reporters,” says Anthony Del Genio, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). “People wanted quick, definitive answers. The trouble is that’s not where the science is.”
Historically, research on tornadoes, hurricanes, and other types of storms has focused on short-term forecasting, not on understanding how storms are changing over time. Reliable, long-term records of storms are scarce, and the different reporting and observing methods have left many scientists and meteorologists feeling skeptical. But the study of storminess and climate has begun to mature, says Del Genio, and a consensus is emerging: for several types of storms, global warming may prime the atmosphere to produce fewer but stronger storms.
Given all the change that has already take place, it’s reasonable to wonder if climate change has affected storms as well. “After the tornadoes in 2011, I was flooded with calls from reporters,” says Anthony Del Genio, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). “People wanted quick, definitive answers. The trouble is that’s not where the science is.”
Historically, research on tornadoes, hurricanes, and other types of storms has focused on short-term forecasting, not on understanding how storms are changing over time. Reliable, long-term records of storms are scarce, and the different reporting and observing methods have left many scientists and meteorologists feeling skeptical. But the study of storminess and climate has begun to mature, says Del Genio, and a consensus is emerging: for several types of storms, global warming may prime the atmosphere to produce fewer but stronger storms.
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